Soft Hand "Swtich"eroo

I’ve spent the last few weeks discussing some blackjack strategy. Blackjack strategies are developed the same way video poker strategies are. Using computers, we evaluate every option the player has and decide which will make the most or lose the least, as the case may be.
As in video poker, many decisions in blackjack are fairly obvious. It is the other hands, which are less obvious, that separate the beginners from the Expert Players.
One group of hands that falls in this category is the soft hands, where an Ace counts as an 11. Players have the option to double down, hit or stick on many of these hands. If you sit at a table for awhile, you’ll quickly find very few players play these hands correctly.
In regular blackjack, many of these hands create double down situations. This is because of the ability to improve the player’s hand AND the Ddaler’s likelihood of busting.
Last week, I showed how the strategy changes dramatically in Spanish 21 with the 10’s missing, and the reduced likelihood of the dealer busting. This week, I’ll take a look at what happens in Blackjack Switch where a Dealer 22 is a push.
In Blackjack Switch, the player must play two blackjack hands with equal wagers. The player then has the option to switch the second cards dealt to each hand. So, if dealt a 5-10 and a 10-6, you can turn that into a 5-6 and a 10-10 and greatly strengthen the hands. If dealt a 5-10 and a 6-10, then switching will do nothing.
The price the player pays for this option is if the dealer busts with a 22, all player hands still in action (except natural blackjacks) are pushed. This means a LARGE number of dealer busts wind up as pushes. Since we double down looking for dealer busts, this will alter our strategy greatly.
The strategy for soft hands in Blackjack Switch is rather simple. There are only FOUR times we double down. We double down on a soft 17 or soft 18 against a dealer 5 or 6. If we have a soft 17 or less and can’t double down (3-plus cards) then we hit. We stick on all soft 19’s or higher. For a soft 18, when we can’t double, we stick against an 8 or less and hit against a 9, 10 or Ace.
 Given how much doubling on soft hands adds to our payback in regular blackjack, how is it that in Blackjack Switch we can give up this benefit and still have a game that pays in the mid 99% range? It is the nature of the ability to switch that creates a bit of a paradox. We double down in far fewer situations in Blackjack Switch than regular blackjack because the Dealer Bust on 22 rule.
However, our starting hands (after the switch) are far stronger in Blackjack Switch than in regular Blackjack. In the case of soft hands, we will frequently perform a switch that will convert it from an ordinary soft hand into a 21 or a 20, leaving the other hand frequently in no worse shape.
So, while we lose the opportunity to double down on some of these soft hands, we instead gain stronger hands we don’t double down on. A 20 (hard or soft) is far preferable to a soft 17 – especially in Blackjack Switch.
While Blackjack Switch simplifies our soft hand strategy, it also adds an entire new layer of strategy by needing to know when to switch. This part of the strategy is far more important to achieving the theoretical payback than is the altered hit/stick strategy. However, I would strongly suggest you learn both!
Just as in video poker, when you change the payouts or the rules of the game, the strategy changes with it. While many of the switch decisions will be obvious, many will leave you scratching your head as to what is the better play.
Undoubtedly, there will also be times when you do the right thing and it backfires or you do the wrong thing and it works out. However, this doesn’t change what the right mathematical answer is. As the saying goes, even a broken clock is right two times a day!
To help you learn the right strategy, I’m continuing to offer our Buy 1 Get 1 Free special. Buy Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch for $6.95 and get Expert Strategy for Spanish 21 for free. Both come with pocket-sized multi-color strategy cards to bring into the casino with you. If you’d like to order, please send a check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.

How do you say "Soft Hand" in Spanish?


            A couple of weeks ago, I discussed the strategy regarding Soft Hands in blackjack.  Soft Hands are those that contain an Ace which is counted as an 11.  Many of these hands should be played as a double down because of both the ability to significantly improve the hand (to a 17-21) AND due to the high probability that the Dealer will bust - as we mostly double down against Dealer Upcards of 2 through 6.

            As is the case with video poker, however, we must remember that the strategy changes with every paytable change or rule change.  We find slight changes to our strategy if we go from the Dealer hitting Soft 17 to the Dealer Sticking on all 17's.  However, if we go to the Blackjack variants of Blackjack Switch or Spanish 21, everything changes.

            In Spanish 21, the 10's have been removed from the decks, so that we are playing with a shoe of 48-card decks.  As may of us know, 10's and Face cards are our friends when playing blackjack.  They enable us to make good solid hands like 20's.  They help us Double Down on 10's and 11's and get strong hands.  Most importantly, they bust any Dealer hand above an 11.  When you hear about card counters, they are keeping track of the percent of 10's/Faces in the deck.  When there are more than 'normal', the game tips more into the Player's favor.  So, taking 4 of them out of each deck is NOT to the Player's advantage.

            Spanish 21 offsets this by giving the Player a host of other advantages.  The Player can double down on any number of cards.  So, if you start with a 5-3 and hit a 3 for 11, you can still double down.  Player 21's beat Dealer 21's.  Player Blackjacks beat Dealer Blackjacks.  There are also several 'bonus' 21 hands thrown in for free.  Get three 7's and win a small bonus.  The house advantage for Spanish 21 is about 0.8% which makes it a little greater than regular blackjack, but ONLY if you learn the proper strategy.

            Some of the biggest changes occur in the Soft Hands.  Not much changes in terms of how your hand will turn out.  The biggest impact is to the Soft 17's and 18's which have less of a chance to draw a 10, but a slightly greater chance to draw the little card you need to improve the hand.  The problem is that the Dealer will Bust less often.  The Bust rate for a Dealer 6 goes from 44.6% in regular blackjack to 40.6% in Spanish 21.  The changes to the Bust rate is enough to get us to make radical changes to our Soft Hand strategy. 

            To begin with, we NEVER Double down on a Soft 13 through 15 in Spanish 21.  We simply hit these hands.  We Double Down on a Soft 16 only against a 6.  However, if we have 4 cards or more, we hit these hands (remember that you can Double on 3 cards in Spanish 21).  Since there are special payouts for 5, 6 or 7+ card 21's, the lure of these payouts is stronger than the ability to Double Down. 

            Soft 17's are Doubled Down against a Dealer 4, 5 or 6.  BUT, only if the Player has 2 cards against the 4, 3 (or less) cards against the 5 and 4 (or less) cards against the 6.  If he has more cards than the minimum, he hits the hand in search of the 5+ card 21.

            Soft 18's bring us the most opportunities to Double Down.  We stick against a 7, but will Double Down even against an 8 as long as we have 3 cards or less.  We also Double Down against a 6 (5 cards or less), a 5 (4 cards or less) or a 2 through 4 (3 cards or less).

            Essentially we throw out everything we know about Soft Hands in Blackjack if we are planning on learning how to play Spanish 21.

            Next week, I'll discuss Soft Hands in Blackjack Switch and the impact of the Push on Dealer 22 rule on our strategy.  For those that want to get a jump on learning, I'm offering a 2 for 1 deal.  Order Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch for $6.95 and get Expert Strategy for Spanish 21 for free.  Both books include a multi-color pocket-sized strategy card.  Send check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.

            

What to Do When Your Hand Goes Soft


            I'm going to continue talking about blackjack this week.  No, I'm certainly not giving up on video poker!  Blackjack is very similar to video poker in that they both require learning rather complex strategies in order to achieve a strong payback.  However, blackjack has the advantage, in my opinion, in that it is a bit easier to learn the strategy.  Recognizing hands in video poker can sometimes be tricky for the beginners.  But, with blackjack a 16 is a 16.  Well, sort of.

            You can actually have 3 different types of 16's.  The first is a Pair of 8's.  For this, we use Pair Strategy.  The second is a Hard 16, where there is no Ace counting as an 11 involved in the hand.  For this, we use our Hard hand strategy.  Lastly, there is a Soft 16, where the hand contains an Ace being used as an 11.  This hand cannot bust by hitting one additional card, so the strategy is quite different from a Hard 16.  For these, we use our Soft hand strategies.

            It is these Soft hands that I would like to focus on today.  Hard strategies are pretty well known.  Don't hit anything above a 16.  Don't hit most Hard hands between 12 and 16 unless the Dealer has a 7 through Ace showing.  There are a few exceptions with 12 and 13, but if you just followed what I wrote, you'll do okay.  But, when it comes to Soft hands, people do all sorts of things - many of them quite wrong.  We've all even seen a few people try to stop on a Soft low hand.  Which card could you draw that will make your Soft 16 more likely to lose as compared to staying put?

            The reason why learning Soft Hand strategy is so important is because these hands afford us the most opportunities to Double Down.  We Double Down for two reasons.  The first is that we have a strong hand (i.e. 10's and 11's) that is likely to get stronger with a single card.  The second is that we have a good hand and the likelihood is strong that the Dealer will bust.   

            When we have a Soft Hand, we have usually have at least 5 chances to make the hand better to the point where it matters - that is to say, wind up with a hand between 17 and 21.  If you can only hit one card and you hit a 13 and it becomes a 15, you really haven't done anything for your hand - positive or negative.  Quite frankly if you hit a Soft 16 and it become a Hard 12, you haven't done anything negative to your hand either.  So, when we Double Down on a Soft hand, we have a hand that MIGHT improve and we look to do this when the Dealer is likely to Bust.

            That last part tells us the first critical part of Soft Hand strategy - we NEVER Double Down when the Dealer has a 7 through Ace up with a Soft Hand.  The likelihood of the Dealer busting is not strong enough to make it worth Doubling Down.

            Next, you need to understand that when you Double Down, you are actually REDUCING your chances of winning the hand, while INCREASING how much you will win when you do.  So, imagine if an identical opportunity came up 100 times.  If you don't Double Down, you will win 75% of the time.  If you do Double Down you will win only 65% of the time.  Which would you want to do?  Well, if you don't Double Down, you will wager 100 and win back 150 for a net win of 50.  If you do Double Down, you will wager 200 and win 260 for a net win of 60.  If you want to win more, you Double Down even though you will win less often.

            As is the case with video poker, you don't have to do any amazing calculations on the fly to figure out what the right strategy is.  Someone like myself, with the help of some computer programs has already done all the hard work.  That is, unless you consider memorizing the strategy tables to be the hard work!

            There are some slight variations in strategy depending on whether the Dealer hits or sticks on a Soft 17.  What is presented here is for the cases where the Dealer does NOT hit a Soft 17.

  • ·         Double Down with a Soft 13 or Soft 14 against a Dealer 5 or 6 Upcard. 
  • ·         Double Down with a Soft 15 or Soft 16 against a Dealer 4, 5, or 6 Upcard. 
  • ·         Double Down with a Soft 17 or Soft 18 against a Dealer 3, 4, 5, or 6 Upcard.


            If you have a Soft Hand that is more than 2 cards so that you can no longer Double Down, you Hit ALL Soft 12 - Soft 17 and Hit a Soft 18 against a Dealer 9, 10 or Ace Upcard.

            Yes, there will be times you will turn a Soft 18 into a Hard 16 and begin to wonder if you made the right move.  But, in these cases, don't just look at YOUR hand, look at the Dealer's.  If he turns over a 10/Face to wind up with 19 or 20, staying put on your 18 would still result in losing.

            Next week, I'll explain a bit more why I like to use Blackjack as a sort of training tool as we see how the strategy I've covered today might change if you were playing a Blackjack variant, such as Spanish 21 or Blackjack Switch.