The SWITCH is ON!

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            My recent trip to Las Vegas was more personal than business, so I didn’t spend a lot of time scouting out new games.  One game that kept popping up without looking for it much was Blackjack Switch.  I found at least one table (and fairly crowded) in about every casino I went to.  I didn’t have a lot of time to see how people were playing it either.  I find it very hard to believe that most people know the right strategy for switching, although many hands are obvious.  I’m also guessing that many people were using whatever strategy they use for regular blackjack to guide them when to hit or stick and this could be rather problematic to their bankroll too.

            To refresh everyone’s memory, Blackjack Switch requires the Player to play two hands of blackjack.  After the initial 2 cards are dealt to everyone and the Dealer’s upcard is exposed, the Player has the option to request that the 2nd card of each of his two hands be switched with one another.  So, if dealt a 10-6 and a 5-10, he can change this to be a 10-10 and a 5-6, which is quite a bit better.  The big tradeoff is that if the Dealer busts with a 22 it is considered a push to any Player’s non-bust hand except for a Natural Blackjack.  It is this rule that makes all the changes to our basic blackjack strategy.

            It is nearly impossible to describe the Switch strategy in a column like this.  With 10 possible upcards and a couple dozen different combinations of individual hands, there are literally thousands of possible combinations.  Instead, I have created a table of expected values for each combination and you need to add up the two values for your pre-switch hands and the two values for your potential post-switch hands – and whichever provides the higher expected value is the right strategy.  Again, many of the hands are obvious, so you won’t need to do this for those.

            Easier to describe is the new hit/stick strategy.  For starters, throw out most of what you think you know of blackjack strategy.  The Dealer busts with 22 a LOT of the time.  These hands becoming pushes means relying on the Dealer to bust to provide you with a win is greatly reduced.  As a result of this, we find that we Double Down and Split far less often – or more correctly, in far fewer circumstances.  We NEVER Double Down into a 10/Face or an Ace (not even with an 11).  The ONLY Double Down with Soft hands are a Soft 17 or 18 looking into a 5 or 6.  Splitting is reduced quite a bit as well.  The rule of ‘always’ splitting 8’s is gone.  Don’t split them into 10/Face or an Ace. 

            The interesting thing is that although there are far fewer conditions in which we Double Down, we don’t necessarily Double Down much less frequently.  As a result of Switching, we create the Double Down situations far more often.  We also wind up with many more strong no-hit hands – which is hardly a bad thing.

            The rules for hard hands only undergo a few changes.  Don’t yell at a Player for hitting a 12 into a 4 as that is the right move.  Hitting a 13 into a 2 is also correct.  However, 14 and above remains as per normal blackjack – only hit if the Dealer has a 7 through Ace as his upcard. 

            Blackjack Switch provides the opportunity for a Player to earn the same payback as regular blackjack – about 99.5% - while spicing up the game a bit.  The hit/stick strategy is actually probably a bit easier than regular blackjack, BUT it MUST be learned anew.  If you choose to use regular blackjack strategy on Blackjack switch, you will double the house advantage.  More critical is learning when to switch.  If you NEVER switched, you’d be giving the casino a nearly 10% advantage.  Of course, even if you just guessed at the switch strategy, you’d probably do better than that – but still far off from Expert Strategy.  Just making a handful of mistakes repeatedly could easily  double, triple or quadruple (or worse) the house advantage.

            A few months ago, I released Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch.  It is a 14-page booklet that explains the rules of the game and how the strategies (both Switch and hit/stick) were developed.  It will also give you some idea of what to expect when you play it.  It comes with a full-color business-sized strategy card for you to take with you to the casino, which includes BOTH strategies on it.  It normally sells for $6.95, but for Gaming Today readers I will make it available for $5.95.  If you’d like to order ONLY the strategy card, it is $2.95 and if you’d like additional cards (when you buy the book), they are only $1.50 each.

            Send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.  There are now about 150 Blackjack Switch tables out there.  Don’t be left behind – the Switch is ON!

That's Why They Call It Gambling

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            I’m in Las Vegas this week, penning this column from my hotel room.  The other night, I was playing video poker at Sam’s Town, next to a guy who was playing single-line Multi-Strike video poker.  I’m familiar with how the game works, but I have to admit, my knowledge of the strategy changes for this intriguing game is extremely limited.  I know that you have to alter your strategy to increase win frequency at the expense of payback when you are on the lower 3 lines without having received a ‘Free Ride’.

            For those unfamiliar with the game, allow me to try and explain the game.  There are four ‘levels’ in Multi-Strike.  To move up to the next level, you have to get a winning hand on the prior level.  Each of the levels pay progressively more than the previous one.  Thus hands on Level 1 pay 1 times the paytable.  Level 2 hands pay 2 times the paytable.  Level 3 hands pay 4 times the paytable and Level 4 hands pay 8 times the paytable.  To play the game you have to wager at least 1 unit on EACH level.  Thus to play ‘max-coin’ you have to wager 20 units – 5 coins times 4 levels.  This means you are paying for a level that you may never reach for each hand.  On each level, you play a brand new hand of video poker. 

            Roughly speaking, a Player playing proper ‘normal’ video poker strategy will win 45% of his hands.  This can be raised a bit if you tweak the strategy to focus a bit more on winning as opposed to how much you win.  However, at 46-47%, you would get slaughtered playing Multi-Strike because the odds of winning the 3 hands at Levels 1 through 3 would not be enough to be worth putting up the extra coin each time.  Thus, the game also incorporates what is called a ‘Free Ride’.  This is randomly generated by the machine to give the Player an automatic trip to the next level.  The Player continues to play the level that gives him the Free Ride, but even if he loses the hand, he still proceeds to the next highest level.  The impact of this feature is to bring the win frequency very close to 50%.

            I’ve never analyzed Multi-Strike, so I can’t provide you with a payback of the game.  Also, there are numerous versions of the game to correspond to regular games (i.e. Jacks or Better, Bonus, Double Double, etc…).  Additionally, the game does not clearly provide the frequency of the Free Ride feature at each level which is required to calculation an accurate payback.  I have seen published numbers from IGT (maker of the game), but there is no way to know for sure if there aren’t different variations and which games are programmed for what frequency.

            Then again, the point of this particular column was not necessarily an analysis of Multi-Strike.  The Player I mentioned earlier came across an interesting hand.  He was dealt an Ace High Straight that was also a 4-Card Royal on Level 3.  The Straight paid 4 units times 4 (for Level 3) for a total of 16 units (I didn’t notice what denomination the guy was playing).  He now faced the choice of sticking with that win and guaranteeing a shot at Level 4, OR going for the Royal Flush which would pay 1000 units (250 times 4).  By going for the Royal, he would also risk not winning at all and thus, not being given an opportunity to play the Level 4 hand.

            First, I’d like to look at this as if it didn’t happen in Multi-Strike.  So, the question is, when dealt a Straight that is also a 4-Card Royal, what is the right play?  Keep in mind, in this particular case, the Player was NOT playing max-coin, so the payout for the Royal was ‘only’ 250.   To fully analyze this situation, we need to look at every possible outcome of going for the Royal.  However, even at a quick glance, we get our answer.  The Player is essentially risking 16 units to win 1000, which is more than a 60-fold increase.  With 47 cards remaining in the deck, he has a 1 in 47 chance of hitting the Royal, which means his potential winnings are greater than the risk.  This tells us that he should go for the Royal.  When we realize that he will also have an additional chance to get a Straight Flush, 7 more ways to get a Flush, 5 more ways to get a Straight and 9 ways to get a High Pair, the decision to go for the Royal becomes an easy one.   The expected value of going for the Royal is about 8.19, while holding the Straight was only 4.

            Of course, in the specific case I’ve spelled out, the decision was a bit tougher.  By going for the Royal, he still has 23 out of 47 chances to wind up a winner and get to Play Level 4.  But, by holding the Straight, he has a 100% chance of playing Level 4.  We cannot dismiss this from the equation.  The expected value for Level 4 is about 7.84 (assuming a 98% payback multiplied by 8).  However, this assumes that we definitely get to play it.  In the case of going for the Royal, we need to multiply this by 23 and divide by 47 to account for the probability of getting to Level 4.  This is only 3.84. 

            So, we need to add these amounts to the respective EVs stated earlier.  While the decision gets quite a bit closer, going for the Royal still edges out the Straight by about 0.19.  I have to admit that I didn’t exactly do this calculation in my head when the guy looked my way (not knowing who I was) and I said “I’d go for it.”  Good thing for me and for the guy playing that he hit the Royal!  Yes, folks – that’s why they call it gambling!

Blurry Lines

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            Recently, one of my ‘friends’ on my Gambatria Facebook page posted up a poll.  They asked people what they play when they go into the casino – table games, slots or other.  I wasn’t sure what to answer.  I tend to split most of my time between blackjack and video poker.  In the end, I decided that video poker was probably the most appropriate answer for me, though.  So, my first reaction was to check the ‘other’ box, but then I began to wonder if maybe the creator of the poll may have included video poker in the choice for ‘slots’.

            If you’ve read my column over the years, you know how much I hate it when people consider video poker to be slots.  They’ve been frequently categorized as such because of the physical similarity of the machines.  Once upon a time, slot machines meant mechanical reels in a wooden box, while video poker was a computer monitor in an identical wooden box.  Then slot machines went digital too and now both are essentially computers in a box.

            But, is this REALLY how we categorize casino games?  By physical characteristics?  It is ironic that originally video poker machines were put into slot-machine boxes and then over time, slot machines were put onto video poker computers in those same boxes.  While they are not so easy to find anymore, if a Player plays a stand-alone video blackjack machine are they playing slots because of the hardware?  Not in my book!

            As the technology of the casino has evolved, the lines have become even more blurred if we look only at the technology and/or hardware that the game is being played on.  Some jurisdictions don’t allow live dealers and/or actual cards, so they only allow some of the newer hardware in – fully electronic tables, where chips and cards are digital and there is either no dealer to speak of or perhaps just a moving image of one.  If you play blackjack on one of these machines are you still playing slots?  Or, are you only playing slots if the machine looks like a slot machine and you’re playing in a non-social environment?  On the other hand, if you’re sitting at something that looks like a blackjack table (or does it look like a set of new fangled slots all hooked together?) then you’re deemed to be playing a table game?

            These new electronic tables have proven the folly of considering a video poker machine to be a slot machine.  We can’t categorize games by the technology that they are played on.  A mistake was made a long time ago to not consider video poker machines as their very own category.   In most ways, they are actually far more like table games than they are slot machines. 
So, perhaps the real mistake was not considering video poker machines to be slots, but to not recognize that slot machines are like nothing else in the casino industry.  They are truly what their long nickname implies – one-armed bandits (only they no longer even have the one-arm!)

            When you sit down at a table game or a video poker machine, I can tell you the exact payback of every wager on the table.  Some of the wagers require learning a complex strategy, others are simple and yet others require no strategy at all.  But, even this last category has known probabilities for each of the paying hands.  When you play Pair Plus (of Three Card Poker) you have nothing to do, but you know exactly what the odds of getting a Three of a Kind is.
            Video poker fits this mold perfectly.  In fact, the strategy required to play video poker is on the complex end of the scale.  It could be argued that this is the exact reason why it was created for a digital platform.  In theory, a casino could put out a blackjack table and deal a paytable version of draw poker.  Each Player could get five cards face down and discard as few or as many as they want.  The payback of this game would be identical to that of a video poker game with the same paytable.  Voila!  ‘Video poker’ is now a table game!

            None of this is true for slots.  Not only is there no strategy whatsoever, you also have absolutely no way of knowing what the payback of a machine.  Two machines sitting side by side appearing to be identical could be set to pay either identical paybacks or paybacks differing by 10% or more!  A machine could be changed overnight to pay 10% less than it was set to the day before and there’s no way of you knowing this.  Absolutely NOTHING is know about the probabilities of a slot machine by the Player and there is no way to get this information. 

            Saying that video poker is slots would be like saying the Space Shuttle and a coffee maker are the same thing because they are both machines.  It just doesn’t add up.  To help you better understand video poker machines and to break the slot habit, our special for June continues.  You can get Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas for just $7.95 (reg $9.95) by sending a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.  

A Slot Upgrade?

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             This past weekend, we had some friends over for lunch.  Invariably, the conversation winds up on my relatively unique profession.  Somewhat ironic in this case as one of the other guys is a hedge fund manager who counts as one of his clients one of the top poker players in the world.  Then again, some would argue that we’re both in the same general profession – casino gambling!

            I got asked the usual question of what the best games to play are and how I got started in the profession.  At one point, the subject turned to slot machines.  There was both good news and bad news to report here.  On one hand everyone seemed to agree that these were amongst the worst payers in the casino.  On the other hand, not everyone admitted that they would never play one.  For those whom are intimidated by the table games, the slots still are the mainstay – no matter how bad they pay.

            I remarked how I had just read an article talking about a comeback that is being made by ‘old fashioned’ mechanical slots.  Everyone in the room agreed that the older slots were better than the newer ones.  A few reasons were cited.  One was that they actually had a handle to ‘pull’.  Another was the clinking of the coins coming out when you won.  I actually commented that I wasn’t sure if the machines making the comeback are ticket-in/ticket-out or truly old-fashioned in that they accept and pay out real coins. 

            One of the reasons I cited for the popularity of the mechanical machines was that you could actually tell when you won or lost.   As I’ve written many times in my column in Gaming Today, I have occasionally put a $5 machine into a penny or nickel video slot machine in order to kill some time.  I then press a button that says “Play max lines” and press another that says “Spin”.  When the reels are done ‘spinning’, the machine then tells me that I either won some number of coins or that I lost.  No matter how many times I try to figure it out, I can’t tell on my own WHY I’ve won when I do!

            I’ll see several identical symbols on the same line only to find that’s not really a line to this 5 ‘reel’, 27-line machine!  Someone should tell some of the slot manufacturers that a ‘line’ usually denotes a STRAIGHT line between two points, not an up and down line that looks more like a heart monitor!  Is it any wonder that people are not having fun playing slots anymore?  It wasn’t good enough when the casinos were essentially taking the Player’s money with 92-93% slot machines, now they have to do it in a way that most Players have absolutely no idea what is going on?  For anyone reading this, please tell me – are you really having fun playing the newer video slots?  I’m sure it’s a lot of fun when you get to a Bonus Round on something like Wheel of Fortune, but do you even know why you got there? 

            I remember playing one slot machine that put me into some sort of Bonus Round.  I won about $25 (on a nickel machine) in under 5 minutes.  I couldn’t tell you why I wound up in the Bonus Round or what I was trying to do while in it!  It just kept telling me to pick boxes and I did.  Each time it opened one, I won more coins.  Hey, I was very happy to win $25 in a few minutes, but I have to be honest.  I can’t really say I had any fun doing it.  I could’ve just as easily lost my bankroll (okay, it was only $5 for the slot machine) and been just as clueless.

            As I raised this point to my guests, there was universal agreement.  While some of them admitted to still playing them, none said they had fun while doing it.  My hedge fund manager friend does all he can to dissuade his wife from playing the slots at all – just based on their horrible paybacks.

            Of course, I have mixed emotions about a comeback for the mechanical slots.  They still have the worst paybacks in the casinos and I would much prefer that slot machines go the way of the dodo bird.  There are SO many better games to play in the casino with better paybacks and that are more fun.  I know that one of the reasons people avoid them is sometimes they are intimidated to play new games that they don’t know how to play.  So, we try to make it a bit easier with our books and booklets.

            Today, May 12th, 2011 would have been my father’s (Lenny Frome’s) 85th birthday.  So, for the rest of May, we’re offering some special prices on our titles:
  •         Winning Strategies for Video Poker and Video Poker: America’s National Game of Chance (both books) for $19.26 (his birth year)
  •          Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas or Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas for just $5.12 each.
  •          Any of the Expert Strategy series books (Three Card Poker, Four Card Poker, Let It Ride, Spanish 21, Caribbean Stud Poker, Mississippi Stud or Blackjack Switch)  - 1 for $4.85, 2 for $8.85, 3 for $11.85 or all 7 for $19.26

            To learn more about any of these titles, go to my website at www.gambatria.com and click on the “Products” tab.  If you would like to order any products, just send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.

Is that Harry Potter playing Blackjack?!

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            A couple of months ago, my son, who is a college freshman , and I were walking through a local mall when he was telling me about some of the interesting people on his campus.  Apparently, there is one young man who wears ‘wizard’ clothing every day.  My son remarked “maybe if you’re buying all your clothes at Party City, you need to change your wardrobe.”  Maybe the kid was just hoping to land the job as official spokesman of the new game Blackjack Switch.

            We’ve all sat down at a Blackjack table at some point and watched as we are dealt a series of bad hands.  After a while, we notice the person next to us is being dealt hands just as bad, but like a mirror image.  We’re getting 5-10, he’s getting face-6.  Sooner or later, one of you joke how you wish you could switch your 2nd cards with each other.  Geoff Hall decided to do something about it.  He invented Blackjack Switch.

            It’s a very simple concept.  You play two Blackjack hands (equal wagers).  The Dealer deals you your regular 2 cards for each hand.  When it is your turn, you can ask him to switch the 2nd cards of the two hands.  So, if you’re dealt a 5-10 and a face-6, you now have a 5-6 and a 10-Face.  Two really lousy hands just became two killer hands!  So, what’s the catch?

            Well, being able to switch your cards like this is a pretty big advantage for the Player, so the house has to take a few things back.  First, a Natural Blackjack pays only even money.  A switched Blackjack only counts as a regular 21.  The ‘biggie’ is that a Dealer 22 (i.e. a busted hand) will PUSH against all Player non-busted hands EXCEPT a Player Natural Blackjack.  Other than that, the rules are pretty standard and moderately liberal.  The Player can double down on any two cards.  He can split until 4 hands.  (It should be noted that you should verify these rules before sitting down to play as casinos can sometimes choose to tighten up the rules a bit).

            Blackjack Switch gives the Player the opportunity to spend a lot more time playing good hands.  In order to get to this position, however, you’ll need to learn a whole new layer of strategy dealing with WHEN to switch cards.  Unfortunately, there is no simple strategy I can provide you.  The only way to know when to switch is by comparing the expected values (EV) of your initially dealt hands with the expected values of your potentially switched hands.  On a positive note, I’ve already done the hard part – calculating these expected values.  So, you just need to look up your hands on a simple chart.

            The second part of the strategy is knowing when to hit, stick, double and split.  The bad news is that if you attempt to use standard Blackjack strategy for Blackjack Switch, you’ll DOUBLE the house advantage even if you switch at all the right times.  The Dealer pushing on 22s greatly alters our strategy.  Doubling on soft hands is nearly nonexistent.  A Dealer upcard of a ‘2’ is transformed from a so-so upcard into a rather powerful one for the Dealer.  The bottom line is you need to throw out everything you learned about regular Blackjack strategy and replace it with a new Blackjack Switch strategy.  Again, I’ve done the hard part and figured out when to hit, stick, etc…

            When all is said and done, if you learn when to switch and you learn the right strategy, Blackjack Switch will afford you a payback right up there with regular Blackjack (about 99.4+%).  At the same time, you’ll be playing a more entertaining version of the game that keeps you involved in the play because you will be busting less often as you will have much better hands on average.

            Shuffle Master is the worldwide distributor of Blackjack Switch and from what I’m told you can now find more than 100 tables in the marketplace, and it is growing monthly.  You can read more about the game and where to find it on their Blackjack Switch Facebook page (www.facebook.com/pages/Blackjack-Switch/167559943295302)

            I just picked up from the printer my brand new booklet Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch.  It comes with a full-color 4-panel double sided strategy card which has both the expected values to help you decide when to switch AND the hit/stick strategy.  It will also go into far more detail on how the strategy was developed (and why it is mathematically sound!) and what to expect from this new Blackjack variant.  The booklet and strategy card sell for $6.95, but I’m running an introductory special for the month of March of just $5.95.  Additional strategy cards can be ordered for just $1.50 if you order the booklet or for $2.95 alone.  Head on over to my website at www.gambatria.com and download the order form to order or just send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603

Gambatria Launched!

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            For years, I’ve been asked how my company got the name Compu-Flyers.  As many of you know, the company was started by my father, Lenny Frome.  My dad spent decades as an aerospace engineer before retiring with my mom to Las Vegas.  It didn’t take long for my dad to get completely bored with retirement.  So, he was one of the first people to buy one of the ‘new’ full-color computers/monitors and an expensive color printer.  He thought that he would open up a kiosk at the local mall and print out color t-shirts and calendars and thus, he registered a company called Compu-Flyers.
My father always found the math behind casino games to be quite intriguing and this probably explains why I was programming Blackjack on my high school computer when I was about 15.  Before he got a chance to rent a kiosk, my dad was walking through a casino when he came across a video poker machine, which at the time was relatively new to the casino.  A short time later he was in another casino, saw a video poker machine with the same paytables but they were advertising different paybacks.  “Impossible!”, my father thought. 
He decided to put his ‘color’ computer to different use.  He created the first analysis of video poker.  While there were probably a couple of bugs in it, it was based on the same concepts that every gambling analyst has used since.  Look at every possible outcome and assign an expected value to each possible play.  Whichever play resulted in the highest expected value is the proper way to play the hand.  My father soon discovered that there was not much written about video poker, so he began going to some of the gambling magazines and offering to write about the topic.  Little by little it caught on.
It was suggested that he write a little tipsheet on video poker.  Rather than create another new business, he simply used the name of the one he had already created for any potential buyers.  When the checks started to come in for his ‘50+ tips on Video Poker’, and later on for Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas – the name was a permanent fixture.  It had absolutely nothing to do with gambling, but Compu-Flyers was here to stay.
It’s been more than 20 years since then, and my dad passed away nearly 13 years ago.   When he died, my family decided to keep the company going.  In reality, this meant that I would keep sending out orders, maintaining his website and try to keep his articles in circulation.  In 2003, I decided to opt for a career change.  I left my job as a Senior Director of Information Technology and decided to follow in my dad’s footsteps.  I’ve been privileged to write for Gaming Today, Midwest Gaming and Travel, Midwest Players, Gaming South and others.  I’ve helped launch numerous successful games including Ultimate Texas Hold’em, Mississippi Stud, Rabbit Hunter, Imperial Pai Gow, Mini Pai Gow and several sidebets for these and others.
It is 2011 and the world has changed a bit.  The internet and Social Media (facebook, twitter, et al) have changed the game a good deal.  The notion of “what’s in a name?” may be more important than ever.  After searching for a new name for Compu-Flyers for a while,  I finally came up with Gambatria.  Why and what is Gambatria?  It is a combination of Gambling and Gematria, which is a system whereby numerical values are assigned to letters and/or words. 
According to Wikipedia, Gematria usually provides two meanings – the ‘revealed’ form which is the straight numerical equivalent of the word and the ‘mystical’ form generally associated with Kaballah (the mystical branch of Judaism that so engrossed Madonna!)  This seemed to apply to gambling too.  Parts of the math are quickly and easily revealed like the payback.  Then there are the parts like the strategy and what to expect that take on a more ‘mystical’ flavor.  So, I guess the mission of Gambatria is to de-mystify gaming math. 
It may seem ironic that I turned to a word that is at least several hundred years old in order to bring my company into the new decade.   The mission is still the same – to do the best I can to educate Players about the right way to play all the games in the casino.  The medium is just changing a bit.  Besides writing my weekly column here at Gaming Today, I’m happy to launch this blog  (the one you're on) "Gambatria"ot.com) and I hope you’ll all follow me on Twitter (also “Gambatria”).  Probably no surprise, but you can now find my website at (www.gambatria.com), although http://www.vpheaven.com/ works as well.
I hope you will all bear with me as these sites probably experience some growing pains, and I get accustomed to using these new 21st century social media concepts to keep in contact with all of you and vice versa.  As a Gambatria Launch Special, you can order Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas for just $7.95 (reg. $9.95).  This includes 1st class postage and handling.  Send a check to:  Compu-Flyers (sorry, haven’t gotten account cut over yet!), P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.