Make the Switch to Blackjack Switch

           

            Over the years, numerous inventors have attempted to tinker with the game of Blackjack.  I warn them to tread very carefully when doing this.  Of all the games in the casino, blackjack strategy has probably become the best learnt strategy.  With the proliferation of computer generated strategies, you see far less splitting of 10's/faces and far less awful choices by the average Player.  You'll still occasionally find the novice who isn't happy until their own hand is 17 or better, even if that means busting it, but you'll now get a collective groan out of the remaining Players instead of several following suit.

            This is where the trouble started for creating a blackjack variant.  Players knew that original Blackjack had a payback of 99.5% (give or take) and they had learned the strategy fairly well.  When someone created some form of blackjack with a twist, they guessed it meant a lower payback (otherwise, why would the casinos offer it?) and it meant a new strategy.  Just like in video poker, if you don't adapt your strategy for the rules of the game, you can't earn the top payback. 

            So, once in a while a new game would hit the floor, Players would give it a try, but, without the right strategy, the theory on payback turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy - and the Player invariably lost more playing the new version than the original.  The new game might have been a bit more exciting than Blackjack, but not enough to overcome the extra losses the Player had to endure.

            As well all know, over the years a few blackjack variants have stuck.  Spanish 21 is likely the most successful of these variants.  It removes the 10's (not the face cards) from the deck.  As this hurts the Players, it returns this missing payback to the Player by offering more liberal rules and some bonus payouts for some novel hands.  This added more excitement to the game and offered the Player some opportunities for something other than mostly even money payouts.   While Spanish 21 is past its prime, it continues to boast a significant presence in the casinos.   It's payback is actually quite comparable to blackjack, but the need to learn a new strategy has kept the casinos happy by having Player error contribute to the hold of the game.

            More recently, Blackjack Switch has also entered the market.  It has roughly 100 tables in the marketplace.  Blackjack Switch uses a unique method to alter the game.  If the Dealer busts with a 22, all Player non-busted hands (except a natural Blackjack) are a push.  This costs the Player several percentage points.  But, to make up for this, Blackjack Switch allows the Player to 'switch' the 2nd card dealt in each of his two hands.  So, if dealt a 5-10 and a 10-6, the 10 and 6 can be swapped to turn the hands into an 11 and a 20.  From two stiffs to two strong hands.  The payback again is comparable to regular blackjack, albeit you must play two hands at a time.

            Blackjack Switch requires not only learning the strategy for the 'Push 22' rule, but you must also learn when to switch cards.  Much of the time it will be fairly obvious as in my earlier example.  In others, less so.  Imagine being dealt a 10-7 and an 8-10 vs a Dealer face card.  What is the right play?  You have two pat hands or you can 'switch' and have a total bust (15) and one strong hand (20).  When we look at the expected values of each of these hands, there is not much of a choice.  17's and 18's against a Dealer 10 are sitting ducks in any blackjack game.  We do the swap and the combined expected value of our hands goes from 1.3 to 1.97.  If you never switched cards, you'd take a 7-8% hit in payback.  No one would ever (hopefully) play this bad, but if you go by the seat of your pants, you're likely to take a 2-3% hit.  Throw in not knowing how to alter your strategy for the Push 22 rule and you could easily take Switch down to a 97% payback from its 99.5+% payback.

           

            Just like in video poker, there is a simple solution for this.  LEARN THE STRATEGY.  To help you with this, my booklet Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch comes with a full-color pocket-sized strategy card that you can bring with you into the casino.  One side has the expected values for every hand to help you decide when to switch.  The other contains the hit/stick strategy for Push 22.  The retail price is $6.95 for the booklet and the card, but for a limited time, I'll offer them to GT readers for only $5.95.  You can also order ADDITIONAL strategy cards for $1.00 each.  If you would like to order, please send a check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.

             

House Money Strategy

            A few weeks ago, I discussed a new game that was about to be released called House Money.  Just before the article went to print, I found out that due to a technical snafu, the game did NOT go live in the casino I mentioned in that article.  But, in the ensuing weeks, it has gone live in four casinos (Cannery in LV, Drift on Inn and Great American Casino in Washington and Pala Casino in California) for a total of eight tables.

            As a quick refresher, House Money is a sidebet for blackjack.  On the surface it seems very simplistic.  You make the optional sidebet wager before the hand is dealt.  If you are dealt a 2-Card Straight Flush, a Straight or a Pair, you win.  What makes House Money stand out is what happens next.  You can either just take you winnings and play your blackjack game as normal OR you can take all those winnings and add them to your base blackjack wager.  It then becomes a part of your wager just as if you made it before the hand was dealt.  If you double, you must match the entire wager (unless the casino allows doubling for less).  If you split the hand, you must match the entire wager and be prepared for additional splits and/or doubling.

            Some decisions are rather easy.  If you're dealt a suited K-A (or even an off-suit K-A), there is not much to think about.  You take your winnings and cap your base bet.  If the Dealer has blackjack, no big deal, it all pushes and it is as if you took your winnings in the first place.  If the Dealer DOESN'T have blackjack, then you'll win 3 to 2 for the ENTIRE wager!

            Other decisions will be almost as easy.  If you're dealt a Pair of 10's or Face Cards, you'll always cap your base blackjack bet.  The Dealer will check for blackjack first, so you don't have to worry about losing your sidebet winnings that way.   Sometimes, the decision NOT to cap your wager will be rather easy too.  If you're dealt a 6-7 looking into a 10, you'll gladly take your winnings and know that whatever happens in the base game, the hand can't be an overall loser.

            There are two strategy problems that you are going to come across.  The first are the hands in which the strategy is less obvious.  For example, it may be no surprise that we cap the wager with a 9-10 against a 2 through 8.  But, we also do it against a 9 through Ace.  Yes, you're going to lose some of the hands against a 10 with a 19 but the odds are still in your favor.  It may also be difficult for you to cap your base blackjack wager when you have a 4-5 against an 8.  Yes, you are likely to draw a 10, but there will be times you draw a 6 and are stuck with a 15 against that 8.  You'll have to have the courage to risk busting the hand even with a wager that might be 3-10 times larger than your normal wager!

            The second strategy issue is going to be the double down and even more so, the potential split hands.   If you are dealt a 5-6, you must be ready to cap your base wager and then double the entire amount in order to maximize the payback of the sidebet.   So, if you are a $5 player and you put $5 on the sidebet and are dealt a suited 5-6, you'll win $20 on the sidebet and have $25 to add to your base wager.  You're now a $30 blackjack Player and you have to be ready to put down another $30 in these cases.

            In similar fashion, if you are dealt a Pair of 8's, you cap your base wager against a 2 through 7, which is probably no surprise.  With the Pair of 8's, you'll win $15 on the sidebet and have $20 to add to the base wager, making you a $25 Player.  Now, you have to split those 8's and be ready for the possibility of being dealt a 2, 3 or 8 leaving you with $25 double downs or splits.  You can quickly have $100 on the table.

            But, as the guy who did the math for Shuffle Master for this game, I can tell you that if you want to have a shot at earning the 98.3% payback from the sidebet, you're going to have not only cap your bet at the right times, but once you do, you must play blackjack using standard strategy.  One of the incredible features of House Money is that while it has its own strategy, it does not change basic Blackjack Strategy one bit!

            If you are interested in learning the complete strategy for House Money, I have created a simple 8 1/2" x 11" tipsheet that shows you when to cap your wager and when to take the money.  It is valid for all shoe sizes.  Eventually, I hope to shrink it down to a pocket-sized strategy card that you can bring with you to the casino, but for now, this will have to do.  If you are interested in ordering it, please send a check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89134.

Playing with House Money

            Over the years, there have been numerous successful sidebets to blackjack.  Many people have wondered why blackjack Players would bother with a sidebet.  A good blackjack Player can play the game at 99.5%, so why would they want to play a sidebet that might pay anywhere from 75%-90%.  That would seem to defeat the purpose of playing a game with such a narrow house edge. 

            I think the success of blackjack sidebets lie in the volatility of them.  Blackjack is essentially a game of coin tosses.  You win one, you lose one.  You win two, you lose three, you win two more.   It is hard to make a real killing (or get killed) on anyone hand unless you have one of those cases where you split 8's, draw another 8 and then a bunch of 2's and 3's for Double Down situation.   The average wager at a blackjack table is a mere 1.15 (roughly) units.

            The sidebet on the other hand will frequently afford the Player the opportunity to win big on a single hand.  The more frequent payoffs might pay 4 to 1 or even 10 to 1.  The more rare winning hands might pay 100 to 1 or 1000 to 1.  A $5 wager can quickly (so to speak) become $500 or $5000.    The tradeoff for this opportunity is generally the lower paybacks associated with no strategy sidebets.  The casinos can't offer 97-98% paybacks for games with no strategy because they can't rely on human error to help drive the casino edge.

            A couple of months ago, Roger Snow, Chief Product Officer at Shuffle Master brought a game idea to me to analyze.  As is frequently the case when we work together, the game went through multiple iterations before we arrived at the final product.  After we 'ran the numbers', I think Roger liked it but didn't love it.  I, on the other hand, told him I thought we had just come up with a nearly perfect sidebet for blackjack.  It was given the name House Money for reasons which will soon become clear.

            As far as I know, it is the first and only blackjack sidebet that has strategy, yet somehow does not affect base blackjack strategy at all.  As a result, if a Player chooses not to play the sidebet, he gives up nothing to the house by sitting at a table that offers it. Also, the casinos are able to offer a sidebet with a payback in the 95+% range because there is the possibility of human error in the strategy.  With all this, the concept of the sidebet is quite simple.

The Player makes a wager before being dealt his blackjack hand.  The Dealer deals the cards as per normal blackjack rules.  If the Player is dealt a Pair, a Straight or a Straight Flush, he wins.  As always, there may be multiple paytables over time, but for now, this is the most common one for a 2, 6 or 8-deck game:

Hand	Pays (TO 1)*
Suited A-K	9
2-Card Straight Flush	4
Pair	3
2-Card Straight	1

            Those payouts may not look all that spectacular.  In all honesty, they are not.  If the game ended right here, the payback would only be about 75% and this would just be another 'nothing special' blackjack sidebet.  But, the game does not end here.  The Player now has two options:

·         Take his winnings and play out his blackjack end per usual

·         Add any/all of his winnings to his base blackjack wager and then play out his hand per usual

            There are NO restrictions on these rules.  If the Player is dealt a Suited A-K, he will be paid 9 to 1 for his sidebet and then can add the entire 10 units to his base Blackjack wager which has ZERO chance of losing.  And YES, the casino will pay 3 to 2 for this additional wagered amount if the Dealer does not also have a Blackjack.

            If the Player is dealt a Pair of Jacks, he will be paid 3 to 1 for the sidebet.  If the Dealer has a 6 up, he can add all 4 units to the blackjack wager.  If the Dealer has a 10 up, he can choose to do so too, but here's where the strategy part comes in.  Is this the right move?  In reality, it is the correct move.  I should add that if the Dealer has Blackjack, the Player NEVER risks his winnings from the sidebet.

            The real fun begins when the Player is dealt a 5-6 (or 5-6 suited) and wins even money (or 4 to 1) and has to decide whether to risk his winnings on his base blackjack wager.  If the Player chooses to do so, it becomes a part of his wager in every sense of the word.  If he decides to double down, he MUST match the ENTIRE wager.  The same applies if he is dealt a Pair and chooses to split.

            Imagine starting with a $5 wager on both the base wager and the sidebet and being dealt a Pair of 8's.  The Dealer pays you 3 to 1 on your sidebet and you now have to decide if you want to add the $20 to your base blackjack wager, making it a total of $25.  Assuming you do and you go ahead and follow standard strategy, you will now split those 8's and you'll have to put up an additional $25 of your own.  Now, you are dealt another 8 and you put up another $25.  Then you're dealt a '3' and you double down and play ANOTHER $25.  You started as a $5 Player and now you have $100 down on the table on essentially one hand!

            For the record, you would only let your sidebet winnings ride if the Dealer has a 2 through 7 as an upcard.  However, whether you cap your bet or take your winnings, you still follow basic blackjack strategy and split those 8's.  You double down on all 11's.

            So far, House Money has been very well received by the casinos that it has been demonstrated in.  It is expected to go live in the next couple of weeks in Reno at the Grand Siena Reno.  It should go live in other casinos shortly thereafter as regulatory approvals are granted.  In a few weeks, after the game has gone live, I'll review the complete strategy for the game.

           

Four Play

           

            Four Card Poker has a special place in my heart because it sort of launched my career as a gaming analyst.  Ironically, I didn't analyze it as it was being developed.  Rather, I wrote about it right here in Gaming Today way back in February 2004.  The column got noticed by the then President of Shuffle Master, who put me in touch with Roger Snow, the inventor of the game and at the time, the Manager of Table Games for Shuffle Master.  That introduction was the beginning of what has been a very successful collaboration which has included blockbuster games such as Ultimate Texas Hold'em and Mississippi Stud, along with countless sidebets for virtually every game in the casino.

            Four Card Poker was also an important game for the evolution of proprietary table games.  By the time Four Card Poker hit stride, there had been a bit of a lull in table game creation.  The casino floor had already changed a good deal with Let It Ride, Caribbean Stud Poker, Three Card Poker and Spanish 21, but those games were all already several years old.  Perhaps there were some other games in between that I am unaware of.  Admittedly, this lull I speak of, occurred after my father passed away and before I entered the field.

            The game itself didn't really break any new ground in terms of betting structure or rules.   The new ground was broken by Four Card Poker's 'crazy' cousin - Crazy 4 Poker, which introduced the Super Bonus wager - which is more commonly known as the Blind wager on more recent Shuffle Master games.  This wager will push if the Player wins with a poor or so-so hand and will win odds if the Player wins with a strong hand.  I'll cover more about Crazy 4 Poker in a few weeks.  Crazy 4 Poker has about 100 tables in the marketplace as compared to Four Card Poker which has about 250.

            Four Card Poker utilizes the same betting structure as Three Card Poker.  There are two separate wagers - Aces Up and Ante/Play.   The Aces Up pays on a pair of Aces or better and is not concerned with the Dealer's hand at all.   The Ante/Play is the wager where you are playing head to head against the Dealer's hand.  You make an Ante wager to begin play and you are dealt your hand which you can review.  Now you can either make a Play wager of 1x - 3x your Ante or Fold, forfeiting your Ante wager.  If you beat the Dealer's hand, you are paid even money.  If you don't you lose both wagers.   Also, similar to Three Card Poker are the Ante Bonuses.  These pay the Player whether he wins or loses against the Dealer - if the Player can achieve a Four of a Kind, Straight Flush or Three of a Kind.  They pay 25, 20 and 2, respectively.

            So, by this point, if you are not familiar with Four Card Poker already, you're probably guessing that the Player and Dealer each get 4 cards and you might be wondering what hand the Dealer needs to qualify.  WRONG!  The name comes from the size of the hand the Player makes.  He is dealt FIVE cards to make a FOUR card hand.  The Dealer is dealt SIX Cards to make a FOUR card hand.  Thanks to this little benefit, the Dealer does NOT need to qualify in Four Card Poker.  Every hand plays. 

            In Three Card Poker, many people follow a strategy to just do what the Dealer does - and play any hand that is Queen or better.  This is a little below perfect, but will not hurt your bankroll significantly.  If you want to play like an Expert, you go with Queen-6-4 as the lowest hand you Play.  So, with the Dealer qualifying on every hand in Four Card Poker, you have nothing to guide you at all.  Adding to the dilemma is when to Play 1x vs. Play 3x.  As is normally, the case, we NEVER bet 2x.  We either cut our losses (FOLD), hedge (Play 1x) or slam on the gas (Play 3x).

            When Four Card Poker was introduced, Shuffle Master supplied information cards that included a basic strategy on them.  This strategy produced a 98.41% payback and includes only 3 rules.  In my analysis of the game, I took that strategy a bit further and produced one with about 7 rules (admittedly, more complex rules too) that takes the payback up to 98.60%.  Even this strategy is not absolutely perfect as it does not take into account specific suit make up of the Player's hand nor go any further than the first 'kicker' in the Player's hand.  It is my expert opinion that to do so would only get the Player an additional 0.01 - 0.02% in payback, but it would also greatly increase the probability of errors by making the strategy that much more complex.

            Without further ado, I present the basic strategy which Shuffle Master initially developed and I have verified.

·         Fold with a Pair of 2's or Less

·         Bet 1X with a Pair of 3's thru 9's

·         Bet 3X with a Pair of 10's or Better

           

            It's that simple if you want to earn the 98.41% payback which is respectable.   Expect to Fold a good amount of the time - just under half.  Four Card Poker was designed to be quite a bit more volatile than Three Card Poker.   As Roger told me way back in 2004, "one of three things typically happens.  One, you double up.  Two, you get crushed.  Three, both one and two, and not necessarily in that order." 

            If you'd like to learn more about Four Card Poker, including the Expert Strategy, I highly recommend my Expert Strategy for Four Card Poker.  You can order it by sending $5.95 to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.  This price includes free shipping and handling.

For the Love of the Game

            Perseverance can be a positive trait when you are trying to invent a new table game.  Unfortunately, it can also be a negative one which can all but kill your chances of ever having a game reach the casino floor.  This translates to one simple thought - Don't fall in love with your game.

            Getting a game into a casino is not an easy thing.  Getting it stay in the casino if you manage to get it placed is even harder.  Perhaps 5% of all games that are conceived of make it to the floor.  Of those that do, maybe 5% that make it there stay for any length of time and continue to grow.  When you add it all up, about 1% of all games invented are some type of financial success for the inventor. 

            This past week I had a conversation with a newcomer to the industry and reminded him that only 1 out of a hundred games becomes a success.  His response was that he'll just have to make sure he comes up with 100 games so that one of them can be successful.  That type of perseverance is the type you want to have. 

            A few years ago, I got a call from an inventor who wanted me to tweak a game that my father had originally worked on for him.  I found the file.  My father had worked on the game 10 years earlier.  In the 10 years, the game had been given a trial or two in a casino and been pulled out relatively quickly.  This is not a time for tweaks.  It is a time to move on to the next idea.  This type of perseverance could be a killer. 

            Roger Snow, Executive VP of Shuffle Master, may very well be the most prolific table game inventor of them all, with games like UltimateTexas Hold'em, Four Card Poker and Crazy 4 Poker to his credit.  He likes to remind people that he has probably invented more flops than anyone in the industry as well.  This doesn't mean that you should take any idea you have and quickly try to get it into a casino, with the goal being to try as any games as you can and hope something sticks.  Unless you have a track record of success, casinos are going to give you only so many chances, so you do want to put your best foot forward.

            If you do manage to get your game into the casino for a trial, it is time to take off the rose-colored glasses.  Listen to the feedback the table games manager gives you.  If the game isn't fairing well, don't start blaming it all on the casino that was kind enough to give you the trial.  They are NOT setting you up for failure.  Even in a free trial, it costs the casino money to try out your game.  They need to train the dealers.  They need to make room for your game by removing some other game that might have been doing okay - in hopes that yours will do great.

            No one can predict the success or failure of a game with a high degree of certainty.  In the end, it must perform which means its success is at the whim of the Players.  I have been working directly with inventors for a decade and indirectly for three decades and there is no clear rhyme or reason as to what succeeds and what doesn't.   The only thing is certain is that if you bring it to the Players and the Players don't like it - it is NOT a success.  It does not matter that your brother, sister, mother and Aunt Tilly all love the game and think it is the greatest thing they've ever seen.  I don't know how to tell you this - but they are BIASED!  This is the same bunch that told you how much they love that new pair of glasses - you know, the ones that make you look like a 1970's version of Elton John.

            If you spend 10 or 15 years trying to get a single game into the casino, you will likely have overlooked many other good ideas that you might have had.  There is a 99% chance that any single game idea you have will fail.  Every game that is invented is, as they say, a slave to the math.  That same math should be telling you that after a certain number of setbacks, your chances of success are greater by moving on than by insisting that the reason your game failed was some flaw of anything but the game itself.  Putting it another way, the expected value of working on the next game is greater than continuing to beat the dead horse.  And by now, you all know that the right play is the one with the higher expected value.

Get Up to SPEED - Let It Ride and Mississippi Stud

            

            Comparing Let It Ride to Mississippi Stud gives us a great opportunity to understand how a subtle difference in betting structure can greatly alter the strategy of the game and thus radically change a game that is otherwise rather similar.  The subtle difference in this case is that in Let It Ride the '1' and '2' wagers are completely optional (essentially, they can be 'checked') and in Mississippi Stud the choice is to Play or Fold.  No checking allowed.

            To best compare these games we need to realize that the idea that the you can take your wager down in Let It Ride doesn't change the game.  The rules of the game could have simply made the '1' and '2' wagers simple optional wagers.  You can either 'check' or you can make the wager. 

            Mississippi Stud also differs in that your first decision is after seeing only 2 cards instead of the 3 as in Let It Ride.  Mississippi Stud's paytable also goes down to a Pair of 6's, whereas Let It Ride goes to a Pair of 10's.   After 2 cards, the Mississippi Stud Player must decide whether to make at least an additional 1-unit wager or to Fold.  Mathematically, this is vastly different than the decision to check or Play.  When we have the decision to check or Play the question becomes one of whether or not the Player will win more than he loses on THAT specific wager.  Prior and future wagers play no part in the equation.  When the choice is to Play or Fold, the question becomes one of whether we can win back at least the amount we are about to wager when we consider ALL other wagers - both those already made and those we might make during the hand.  This is because if we choose NOT to Play, we are forfeiting all past wagers and the right to make all future wagers.

            The impact to this becomes most evident when we compare the '1' wager in Let It Ride to the 4th street Wager in Misssissippi Stud.  In this case, both hands consists of 3 cards and we are deciding whether to/how much to wager on the 4th card.  In Let It Ride, we find ourselves making the wager very infrequently.  We are willing to leave the wager in place only on sure winners (Pair 10's or Better or Trips), 3-Card Royals and 3-Card Straight Flushes (Open or Inside, NOT Double Inside).   We make this wager only 7% of the time.

            In Mississippi Stud, by the time we get to 3 cards, we have already wagered our Ante and at least 1 unit on the 3rd Street Wager.  If we Fold, we are forfeiting both of these  wagers.  We will also end our hand right then and there.  So, we also forfeit the right to potentially benefit from our next wager (5th Street).  The decision to Play 3x is similar to our Let It Ride decision.  Once you are going to win more than you are going to lose on a specific wager, you wager as much as the house lets you.  So, we find that we wager 3x on all sure winners, 3-Card Royals and a variety of 3-Card Straight Flushes.  We still go ahead and wager 1x on a whole lot of hands that sound like they're going to need some help to become winners.  This includes all Low Pairs, 3-Card Flushes and hands with the right combination of High and Medium cards.

            The net result is that we very rarely fold at this decision point.  The overall fold rate for Mississippi Stud is 44%.   31% (or nearly 75% of the total folds) occur after you see the first 2 cards.  Of the remaining 69% of hands that go to 3 cards, you will fold only 12% of the time.

            In Let It Ride, you will let the '2' wager stay up 16% of the time.  In Mississippi Stud, you will make a wager at 5th Street more than 90% of the hands that go that far.  This happens for two major reasons.  The weakest hands were folded very early on.  A hand that started as two Low Cards was dropped early, which makes weaker hands that much less frequent later on.  In Let It Ride, even the weakest hands have a chance to make it to the end of the hand.  The second reason is that when you have 3 units already wagered and you are compelled to either Fold or make another 1-unit wager, it does NOT take a high win frequency to make it worthwhile to make that additional 1-unit wager.   With just 1 High card and 2 Medium Cards or 2 High Cards in hand, it still pays to make this wager.

            With 2 High Cards, the Player still has 6 chances to draw a High Pair which will return 8 units the Player (each).  With 48 cards remaining in the deck this amounts to an expected value of exactly 1.0, which is the cutoff for determining whether or not to make the wager.  Throw in a Medium card as well and he gets 3 more chances to pick up 4 units and the expected value is now 1.25.  If this were a check or Play decision as in Let It Ride, the decision would clearly be to pull it back with these types of hands.

            There is a reason why I've coined Mississippi Stud to be Let It Ride on SPEED.  The games are very similar in how they play but vastly different in strategy and size of bankroll needed to sit and play.  I can't quite cover all the differences or all the strategy here, but for a limited time, I'm offering up a buy one get one special on my two booklets for these games.  Buy Expert Strategy for Mississippi Stud for $5.95 and get Expert Strategy for Let It Ride for free.  Just send check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133 and I'll get them both out to you ASAP.

The Next Big Game

            Part 2 of my preview of table games at the 2011 Global Gaming Expo (G2E) will focus on two games that I did the math on.  Both of the games come from Shuffle Master and both with also be on display at their booth this year.   From what I understand, the 'live' table half of their booth will contain ONLY brand new games.  Up this week, Ultimate Three Card Poker and San Lo Poker.

Ultimate Three Card Poker

            If you only take a quick look, you may think this is just Three Card Poker.  If you look closely, you'll see a variety of twists have been added in.  The betting structure if vastly different.  To begin play, the Player must make an Ante AND Blind wager (equal aize).  The Player and the Dealer will each get their three cards, but now one of the Dealer's cards is turned face up.  This is a lot of information given it is just a 3-card hand.  As in the original Three Card Poker, the Player may now either Fold (surrendering BOTH his initial wagers) or make a Play bet.  If he has a Pair or Better, he may make a Play bet of 3x his Ante. 

            Qualifying still exists in Ultimate Three Card Poker, but the rules are a bit different.  If the Dealer does not have at least a Queen High or Better, the Ante pushes and all other wagers stay in action.  If the Dealer has a Queen High or Better, then all wagers are in action.  If the Player beats the Dealer, his Ante and Play win even money (unless the Dealer did not qualify in which case the Ante pushes).  The Blind will push if the Player beats the Dealer with less than a Flush and will win odds if he wins with a Flush or better.

            The critical thing to know about Ultimate Three Card Strategy is FORGET Q-6-4. Knowing one of the Dealer's cards make a whole lot of difference in what we Play vs. Fold.   I'll cover the detailed strategy at a later date, but I can tell you that Ultimate Three Card Poker affords the Player a strong 98.81%.  It will, however, require that you learn a strategy more complex than Q-6-4, but it is one that you can master easily.

San Lo Poker

            The first time I saw Pai Gow Poker, I thought it was some sort of high roller game, requiring a large bankroll.  When I found out more about it, it turns out it is likely the slowest game in the casino - at least from a bankroll perspective.  Around 40% of the hands end in a push with the Player winning 1 hand and the Dealer winning one hand.

            If you want to eliminate this condition, split the cards into 3 separate hands instead of 2 and require the Player to win 2 out of 3 hands to win.  Now, there is no such thing as a push.  To keep things more exciting, deal only 6 cards instead of 7 and you have San Lo Poker.  You can't get much easier than this.  The Player makes a single wager and is dealt 6 cards.  He must break it down into a 3-Card Hand, a 2-Card Hand and a 1-Card Hand (also called High, Mid and Low hands).  As in Pai Gow, the High Hand must outrank the Mid Hand which must outrank the Low Hand.

            The Dealer will also be dealt 6 cards and break his hand down according to the House Rules (which I helped develop).   As these rules are fairly complex, San Lo is played on tables with Shuffle Master's i-verify which has card recognition software built-in and will tell the Dealer how to set the cards.  A Player may opt to have his hand set the same way and can ask the Dealer for assistance to do this.

            The human playable strategy is still being developed, but at this point, I'm fairly certain that to maximize the payback, the Player does NOT always want to mimic the House Rules.  With a goal of winning two out of three, sometimes it pays to sacrifice one to help win the other two. 

            The payback of San Lo is just under 99% but there is no messy commission to deal with.  I'll cover this game in more detail in the coming weeks.  In the meantime, I suggest you stop by the Shuffle Master booth and check this one out.  It's an exciting twist that adds a bit more thinking to the classic Pai Gow Poker game.

            If you make it to the G2E this year, please feel free to drop me a line (ElliotFrome@gamingtoday.com) if you see any other table games along with any comments you may have.  I'll be wandering around the show floor for most of the three days, checking out the next big game!

The SWITCH is ON!

            My recent trip to Las Vegas was more personal than business, so I didn’t spend a lot of time scouting out new games.  One game that kept popping up without looking for it much was Blackjack Switch.  I found at least one table (and fairly crowded) in about every casino I went to.  I didn’t have a lot of time to see how people were playing it either.  I find it very hard to believe that most people know the right strategy for switching, although many hands are obvious.  I’m also guessing that many people were using whatever strategy they use for regular blackjack to guide them when to hit or stick and this could be rather problematic to their bankroll too.

            To refresh everyone’s memory, Blackjack Switch requires the Player to play two hands of blackjack.  After the initial 2 cards are dealt to everyone and the Dealer’s upcard is exposed, the Player has the option to request that the 2^nd card of each of his two hands be switched with one another.  So, if dealt a 10-6 and a 5-10, he can change this to be a 10-10 and a 5-6, which is quite a bit better.  The big tradeoff is that if the Dealer busts with a 22 it is considered a push to any Player’s non-bust hand except for a Natural Blackjack.  It is this rule that makes all the changes to our basic blackjack strategy.

            It is nearly impossible to describe the Switch strategy in a column like this.  With 10 possible upcards and a couple dozen different combinations of individual hands, there are literally thousands of possible combinations.  Instead, I have created a table of expected values for each combination and you need to add up the two values for your pre-switch hands and the two values for your potential post-switch hands – and whichever provides the higher expected value is the right strategy.  Again, many of the hands are obvious, so you won’t need to do this for those.

            Easier to describe is the new hit/stick strategy.  For starters, throw out most of what you think you know of blackjack strategy.  The Dealer busts with 22 a LOT of the time.  These hands becoming pushes means relying on the Dealer to bust to provide you with a win is greatly reduced.  As a result of this, we find that we Double Down and Split far less often – or more correctly, in far fewer circumstances.  We NEVER Double Down into a 10/Face or an Ace (not even with an 11).  The ONLY Double Down with Soft hands are a Soft 17 or 18 looking into a 5 or 6.  Splitting is reduced quite a bit as well.  The rule of ‘always’ splitting 8’s is gone.  Don’t split them into 10/Face or an Ace. 

            The interesting thing is that although there are far fewer conditions in which we Double Down, we don’t necessarily Double Down much less frequently.  As a result of Switching, we create the Double Down situations far more often.  We also wind up with many more strong no-hit hands – which is hardly a bad thing.

            The rules for hard hands only undergo a few changes.  Don’t yell at a Player for hitting a 12 into a 4 as that is the right move.  Hitting a 13 into a 2 is also correct.  However, 14 and above remains as per normal blackjack – only hit if the Dealer has a 7 through Ace as his upcard. 

            Blackjack Switch provides the opportunity for a Player to earn the same payback as regular blackjack – about 99.5% - while spicing up the game a bit.  The hit/stick strategy is actually probably a bit easier than regular blackjack, BUT it MUST be learned anew.  If you choose to use regular blackjack strategy on Blackjack switch, you will double the house advantage.  More critical is learning when to switch.  If you NEVER switched, you’d be giving the casino a nearly 10% advantage.  Of course, even if you just guessed at the switch strategy, you’d probably do better than that – but still far off from Expert Strategy.  Just making a handful of mistakes repeatedly could easily  double, triple or quadruple (or worse) the house advantage.

            A few months ago, I released Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch.  It is a 14-page booklet that explains the rules of the game and how the strategies (both Switch and hit/stick) were developed.  It will also give you some idea of what to expect when you play it.  It comes with a full-color business-sized strategy card for you to take with you to the casino, which includes BOTH strategies on it.  It normally sells for $6.95, but for Gaming Today readers I will make it available for $5.95.  If you’d like to order ONLY the strategy card, it is $2.95 and if you’d like additional cards (when you buy the book), they are only $1.50 each.

            Send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.  There are now about 150 Blackjack Switch tables out there.  Don’t be left behind – the Switch is ON!

Who Isn't Crazy 4 Poker?

             Shortly after  Four Card Poker was being launched, another similar, yet different, game hit the marketplace.  It was called Crazy 4 Poker.  In a recent conversation with Roger Snow, Executive Vice President at Shuffle Master, he revealed that Crazy 4 Poker was invented on January 28, 2002.  How does he remember the specific day?  It was the same day that Four Card Poker went live at Jackson Rancheria in California.  Fearful that Four Card Poker was going to flop, he immediately went to work on its successor game.  As it turns out, he got them both right.

            For reasons not fully known, the game was a big hit in Nevada.  There are currently about 100 Crazy 4 Poker tables, of which 40 are in Nevada.  Virtually every major casino in Las Vegas has one.  Crazy 4 Poker is an important piece in the history of table games.  It introduced the concept of a ‘Super Bonus’ (now more commonly referred to as the “Blind” wager) in Shuffle Master games.  This has become a staple of their more recent games.

            Crazy 4 Poker is broken down into two separate wagers.  The first is called Queens Up is like Pair Plus.  If the Player is dealt a Pair of Queens or better he wins according to the paytable in use.  The second portion of the game is like Ante/Play.  It requires that the Player make both an Ante wager and a Super Bonus wager.  The Player and the Dealer are each dealt FIVE cards to make their best FOUR card hand.

            Once the Player has reviewed his hand, he can either Fold, forfeiting his Ante and Super Bonus wagers, or he can Play.  If the Player has a Pair of Aces or better, he may Play 3 times his Ante wager.  If he has less than a Pair of Aces, he can only wager 1 times his Ante.  Thus, when the Player has a strong hand, he can really sock it to the casino. 

            After all Players have decided what they want to do, the Dealer reveals his hand.  If the Dealer does not have at least a King High, his hand does not qualify.  In this case, the Ante wager is pushed and the Play wager is paid even money.  This means that if you have a strong hand and Play 3x you will still win even money on this when the Dealer does not qualify.  If the Dealer’s hand IS a King High or better, his hand qualifies.  In this case, if the Player’s hand outranks the Dealer’s hand, he will be paid even money on both his Ante and Play wagers.  If the Dealer’s hand outranks the Player’s hand, the Player will lose his Ante and Play wagers.

            The payouts on the Super Bonus wager are a bit more complex.  If the Player has a Straight or better (keep in mind with a 4-card hand, Trips outrank Straights and Flushes), he is paid according to the paytable regardless of the Dealer’s hand.  If the Player beats the Dealer, but with a hand less than a Straight, the wager pushes.  If the Player loses to the Dealer with a hand less than a Straight, the wager loses.

            The strategy for Crazy 4 Poker is rather similar to that of Three Card Poker.  The Player must remember only a single strategy to master the game – K-Q-8.  If the Player’s hand is K-Q-8 or higher, he should Play.  Technically, he must also remember to Play 3x if he has a Pair of Aces or better, but I consider this part of the strategy to be more than a little obvious.  The Player will win 90% of these hands.  It should be noted that K-Q-8 is not actually ‘perfect strategy’.  There are a handful of hands which should be Folded above K-Q-8 and a few that should be Played below.  However, these require taking into account the specific suit makeup of the hand and are more likely to cause errors by the Players than they are worth.  The difference between ‘perfect’ and ‘expert’ strategy is a mere 0.01% of payback.

            Speaking of payback, if you follow the simple strategy provided here, you’ll find Crazy 4 Poker affords a 98.91% payback on the Ante/Play portion of the game.  Given the relatively easy strategy, this is a very strong payback to offer.   As a side note to those that like to play games like this and never Fold.  Never folding in Crazy 4 Poker will take the payback down to 96.5%.  Considering an average wager of more than 3 units per hand, a $5 Player will be throwing away about $15 per hour more by following this wayward strategy.

            Stick to the K-Q-8 and before you know it, you’ll be Crazy 4 Poker too!  You can read more about Crazy 4 Poker and many other games at my website – www.gambatria.com.

The Storm After the Calm

            After Three Card Poker takes the casinos by storm, there is a bit of a lull in activity of new games.  That’s not to say that there weren’t many attempts, some with some success.  Up until Three Card Poker, casinos were not exactly chomping at the bit to put in new games.  Of course, as Three Card Poker grew in popularity and casinos started making that much more money even AFTER paying for the table, they probably began to realize that there was more money to be made with yet newer games.

            Enter Four Card Poker.  My initial reaction to hearing the name of the game was that I hoped it was NOT just Three Card Poker with four cards.  Fortunately, it is not.  Four Card Poker holds an interesting place in my heart.  On one hand, it is one of the few successful table games that was NOT analyzed by my father or myself.  It was developed after my dad passed away and before I jumped into the profession.  Nonetheless, it helped speed my entry into the profession. 

            Shortly after starting to write for Gaming Today in 2003, I received an e-mail from a reader about my Three Card Poker article.  He asked me if I had ever heard of Four Card Poker.  I had just read about the game earlier that day and the gentleman and I had an exchange of a few e-mails.  I finally asked him if he had a financial interest in the game (based on his questions) and he told me that he had just become the President of Shuffle Master (Paul Meyer).  Obviously, he had not been using his company e-mail address.  A few months later, after completing an analysis of Four Card Poker, I wrote an article about it in Gaming Today.  Again, I received an e-mail from Paul, this time commending me on nailing the math for the game.  I had accurately repeated the original analysis of the game.  Paul wound up putting me in touch with Roger Snow, then Manager of Table Games for Shuffle Master.  Roger gave me a few small projects to ‘test’ me and the rest is as they say ‘history.’  Roger and I have been working together ever since.

            Four Card Poker does have some similarities to Three Card Poker.  It is broken down into two games – the Ante/Play and the Aces Up wagers.  The latter is like Pair Plus.  The Player is paid if dealt a Pair of Aces or better.  Despite the name of the game, neither Player NOR Dealer get dealt four cards.  The Player is dealt five cards to make his best four card hand.  The Dealer, in the meantime, is dealt SIX cards to make his best four card hand.  One of his cards is dealt face up, but this makes only a minor amount of difference to our strategy.  To help compensate the Player for the Dealer’s ‘extra’ card, the Player has the opportunity to bet up to 3 times his base wager as part of Ante/Play.  So, he can Fold (forfeiting his Ante), Play 1 times his Ante or Play 3 times his Ante.  Also, there is no qualifying in Four Card Poker.  Once you decide to Play it is your hand vs. the Dealer hand.  There is one additional benefit to the Player in Four Card Poker.  The Player wins all ties.  Ties mean identical four card hands.  The cards not used to make the four card hands are NEVER taken into consideration.  If the Player’s hand beats or ties the Dealer’s hand, he is paid even money on his Ante and Play Wagers.  Additionally, the Player is paid an Ante Bonus if he has a Three of a Kind or better.

            With 5 Player cards and 6 Dealer cards, there are 28 TRILLION possible hands that can be dealt.  This makes creating a program to run all of them impractical.  Instead, we go in search of the beacon hands.  These are the hands that are at the strategy points.  In the case of Four Card Poker, we need to find two of them.  We need to know when to Fold vs. Play 1x and we need to know when to Play 3x instead of 1x.  Much to my surprise, Shuffle Master provided a basic strategy for the game on their information card.  When I simulated this strategy, I found a payback of 98.41%.  When I performed a more complete analysis, I found that I could push this up to 98.60%, but it requires memorizing a strategy that is a bit more complex.

            The basic strategy is as follows:

• Play 3x if you have a Pair of 10’s or Better
• Play 1x if you have a Pair of 3’s through 9’s
• Fold if you have a Pair of 2’s or less

            The Expert Strategy I developed has 6 rules for when to Bet 3x which more fully takes into account the Dealer upcard.  While the additional 0.19% might not sound like a lot, it cuts the house edge by about 12%, which is significant.  If you’re interested in learning more about Four Card Poker, you can order Expert Strategy for Four Card Poker for $5.95.  Send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota NJ 07603.

            Four Card Poker was an important milestone in table game development as it showed that Three Card Poker wasn’t just a fluke success.  The Players were looking for more games with more excitement than the casino standards of Blackjack, Craps and Roulette.  Four Card Poker would soon lead to Crazy 4 Poker and then the Texas Hold’em craze started to build.  You can read about some of these other games on my website at www.gambatria.com or you can just stay tuned here and I’ll be covering them in the coming weeks.

Is that Harry Potter playing Blackjack?!

            A couple of months ago, my son, who is a college freshman , and I were walking through a local mall when he was telling me about some of the interesting people on his campus.  Apparently, there is one young man who wears ‘wizard’ clothing every day.  My son remarked “maybe if you’re buying all your clothes at Party City, you need to change your wardrobe.”  Maybe the kid was just hoping to land the job as official spokesman of the new game Blackjack Switch.

            We’ve all sat down at a Blackjack table at some point and watched as we are dealt a series of bad hands.  After a while, we notice the person next to us is being dealt hands just as bad, but like a mirror image.  We’re getting 5-10, he’s getting face-6.  Sooner or later, one of you joke how you wish you could switch your 2^nd cards with each other.  Geoff Hall decided to do something about it.  He invented Blackjack Switch.

            It’s a very simple concept.  You play two Blackjack hands (equal wagers).  The Dealer deals you your regular 2 cards for each hand.  When it is your turn, you can ask him to switch the 2^nd cards of the two hands.  So, if you’re dealt a 5-10 and a face-6, you now have a 5-6 and a 10-Face.  Two really lousy hands just became two killer hands!  So, what’s the catch?

            Well, being able to switch your cards like this is a pretty big advantage for the Player, so the house has to take a few things back.  First, a Natural Blackjack pays only even money.  A switched Blackjack only counts as a regular 21.  The ‘biggie’ is that a Dealer 22 (i.e. a busted hand) will PUSH against all Player non-busted hands EXCEPT a Player Natural Blackjack.  Other than that, the rules are pretty standard and moderately liberal.  The Player can double down on any two cards.  He can split until 4 hands.  (It should be noted that you should verify these rules before sitting down to play as casinos can sometimes choose to tighten up the rules a bit).

            Blackjack Switch gives the Player the opportunity to spend a lot more time playing good hands.  In order to get to this position, however, you’ll need to learn a whole new layer of strategy dealing with WHEN to switch cards.  Unfortunately, there is no simple strategy I can provide you.  The only way to know when to switch is by comparing the expected values (EV) of your initially dealt hands with the expected values of your potentially switched hands.  On a positive note, I’ve already done the hard part – calculating these expected values.  So, you just need to look up your hands on a simple chart.

            The second part of the strategy is knowing when to hit, stick, double and split.  The bad news is that if you attempt to use standard Blackjack strategy for Blackjack Switch, you’ll DOUBLE the house advantage even if you switch at all the right times.  The Dealer pushing on 22s greatly alters our strategy.  Doubling on soft hands is nearly nonexistent.  A Dealer upcard of a ‘2’ is transformed from a so-so upcard into a rather powerful one for the Dealer.  The bottom line is you need to throw out everything you learned about regular Blackjack strategy and replace it with a new Blackjack Switch strategy.  Again, I’ve done the hard part and figured out when to hit, stick, etc…

            When all is said and done, if you learn when to switch and you learn the right strategy, Blackjack Switch will afford you a payback right up there with regular Blackjack (about 99.4+%).  At the same time, you’ll be playing a more entertaining version of the game that keeps you involved in the play because you will be busting less often as you will have much better hands on average.

            Shuffle Master is the worldwide distributor of Blackjack Switch and from what I’m told you can now find more than 100 tables in the marketplace, and it is growing monthly.  You can read more about the game and where to find it on their Blackjack Switch Facebook page (www.facebook.com/pages/Blackjack-Switch/167559943295302)

            I just picked up from the printer my brand new booklet Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch.  It comes with a full-color 4-panel double sided strategy card which has both the expected values to help you decide when to switch AND the hit/stick strategy.  It will also go into far more detail on how the strategy was developed (and why it is mathematically sound!) and what to expect from this new Blackjack variant.  The booklet and strategy card sell for $6.95, but I’m running an introductory special for the month of March of just $5.95.  Additional strategy cards can be ordered for just $1.50 if you order the booklet or for $2.95 alone.  Head on over to my website at www.gambatria.com and download the order form to order or just send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603

You can be a Three Card Poker expert too!

            This past week, I posted something on the Facebook page for Three Card Poker.  Shuffle Master asked people to relate their best story about Three Card Poker.  So, to get the ball rolling, I posted the following true story:

I'll get the ball rolling: A few years ago, my wife and I sat down at a Three Card Poker table (I think we were at Sunset Station). It was the first time my wife ever sat a casino table game. We had covered the basics of how to play the game (strategy-wise), but after the Dealer gave her her chips, she looked at me and said "now what do I do" - meaning just where to put the wagers. The woman to her right struck up a conversation by telling my wife exactly where to put the chips and how to play. She told my wife that you "'usually play with Queen or better, but sometimes you 'Play' with a Jack and can beat the Dealer." It took all my wife's strength to not respond to the woman, "Do you have any idea who my husband is? He WROTE THE BOOK on Three Card Poker!" (literally). This is an absolutely true story, and unless someone recognizes me - I don't tell anyone who I am in the casino so that's why my wife didn't say anything.

            In response, another reader, posted the following:

‎^^^ little cocky huh? 

By the way Q-6-4 is a great strategy - if you work for Shuffle Master.

Q-J, Q-10 isn't even a good one. King high only, but you did write a book on it so you must know what you're talking about.

            I couldn’t really argue with the ‘cocky’ part.  When it comes to gaming math, I am one of the experts.  Nearly every successful proprietary table game in the casino has had either my father’s work or my work behind it.  The rest of this person’s response had me a bit befuddled.  Queen – Six – Four is not a great strategy if you work for Shuffle Master.  It’s a great strategy (and the best strategy) if you play Three Card Poker.  In fact, it really is ALL you need to know to be an expert at the game.

            This poster seems to have it backwards.  It is not because I wrote a book about Three Card Poker that I know what I’m talking about.  It is because I know what I’m talking about that I wrote the book Expert Strategy for Three Card Poker.  My father worked with the inventor of Three Card Poker.  Several years ago, when Shuffle Master had a Three Card Poker tournament, they came to me to write a strategy booklet on the best way to play for Tournament Play.  But, it’s not because of all this that I know what I’m talking about.  It is because I can prove mathematically that Q-6-4 is the best strategy that I know what I’m talking about.

            How does one go about proving this?  In the case of Three Card Poker, it is very simple.  There are 22,100 unique 3-card hands you can receive from a 52-card deck.  For each of these, there are 18,424 possible Dealer hands.  Using a computer program, I run every one of these hands (just over 400 MILLION hands) and determine for each of the 22,100 Player hands whether the Player is better of Playing or Folding.  If the Player wins back at least the 18,424 units he would wager playing against each of the Dealer’s 18,424 possible hands, then he should Play.  If not, he will lose less by Folding than he would by making an additional wager.  When you analyze the results of this program, you find that the decision point is at Q-6-4.

            At Q-6-4, the Player will wager 18,424 additional units, but win back 18,546.  His net loss will be 18,302 which is still a bit better than Folding and losing 18,424.  At Q-6-3, he will win back only 18,377 creating a net loss of 18,471 which is a bit more than he would if he just Folded.

            So, the poster, seemingly attempting to mock my answer, suggests three other possible strategies – QJ, Q10 and even King High.  How do these stack up?  Well, QJ will get you a payback of 97.61%.  Q10 will get you a payback of 97.28%.  If you want simplicity and go with King High then the payback falls to 96.84%.  The payback for Q-6-4 is 97.98%.  So, there is a clear difference, but it may not seem so big to some of you.  So, let’s flip this around to look at the house advantage (100%-payback).  For Q-6-4, we give up 2.02% to the house.  For QJ it become 2.39% or nearly a 20% increase.  For Q10 it goes up to 2.72% for a 35% increase.  Last but not least, for King High, the house advantage goes to 3.16% or a 55% increase. 

            There are times when you may want to simplify the strategy to reduce errors with a tradeoff of some payback.  However, I really don’t think remembering Q-6-4 should push anyone’s brain to the limit.  It’s your money, you can lose 20-55% more by picking a different strategy or you can become an expert and remember Q-6-4.  Not because I wrote the book and not because I ‘must know what I’m talking about’, but because it IS the BEST strategy.

The Year of the Rabbit

            Happy Chinese New Year!  2011 is the year of the Rabbit on the Chinese calendar.  I think the folks at Shuffle Master are hoping it’s the year of the Rabbit too!  In the last few months, one of their latest table games, Rabbit Hunter launched at two casinos in California – Pala Casino and Jackson Rancheria.  I wrote about this game back in November in a lead in to the game being on display at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas.  I had the pleasure of working with Roger Snow, Executive VP at Shuffle Master in developing the math for the game.

            Rabbit Hunter is very unique in its betting structure and rules of play.  I don’t know of another game in which you have the opportunity to literally buy an extra card, and as a result, play six cards to the Dealer’s five.  Let me review the basics of the game and then I’ll go into more detail about buying a card.

            To begin play, the Player makes an Ante wager and an optional Bonus bet.  While this Bonus bet is ‘optional’, I will tell you that the strategy makes this wager all but mandatory.  The Player and Dealer are each dealt five cards face down.  The Dealer will also deal a 6^th card to each Player FACE DOWN in a separate spot.  The Player may look at his 5-card hand and then he has to make a choice as to how to play the hand.

He can Fold, forfeiting his Ante and Bonus wager.  He can make an additional wager (Play wager) equal to his Ante which will allow him to go head to head against the Dealer OR, he may make that Play wager AND buy the 6^th card for an amount equal to his Ante wager.  Note, that the Player CANNOT only buy the card without also making the Play wager.  If you choose to buy the card, the money you pay goes right to the casino.  This extra card can help you win more on your other wagers, but the money you pay is gone. 

Assuming the Player does not Fold, his five (or six) card hand will go head-to-head against the Dealer’s five card hand.  His hand will also be used to determine if he wins the Bonus wager.  In both cases, if he bought the 6^th card, he may use any five of the six to make his hand.  If the Dealer’s hand is not at least an Ace High, the Player’s Ante Wager is a push and the Play bet will be paid even money if the Player’s hand outranks the Dealer’s hand.  If the Dealer’s hand qualifies with an Ace High or better, then both the Ante and Play wagers will pay even money if the Player’s hand outranks the Dealer’s hand.  If the Dealer’s hand outranks the Player’s hand, the Play wager is lost. 

            I have little doubt that many Player’s will sit down to play Rabbit Hunter and find the notion of buying a card rather distasteful.  That said, the analysis takes this fully into account, and the paytable in use at the two casinos has a payback of 99.35% which is more than a little competitive.  It is one of the highest for any table game anywhere and just a smidge below Blackjack.

            The strategy for Rabbit Hunter may seem a bit odd at first.  Buying the additional card is mostly for the benefit of the Bonus bet.  While it can have some residual impact to the play against the Dealer, this benefit is limited to low ranking hands or partial hands improving.  For example, if you buy a card with Two Pair and it turns into a Full House, your Bonus pay goes from 2 to 30 – well worth the expense.  But, the impact to beating the Dealer is much smaller.  With a Two Pair you’ll beat the Dealer 92+% of the time vs. 99.9% for a Full House.  The extra 7% is nice, but would not be worth buying the extra card on its own.

            As a result, we find that there are certain High Pairs which are not worth buying the card for.  The improvement from a High Pair to a Two Pair or Trips is simply not enough to warrant buying the card.   Whereas when a Low Pair improves to a Two or Trips, we find that it does pay to buy the card because we turn the Bonus bet from a loser into a winner while ALSO improving our hand.

            When all is said and done, this is the complete strategy for Rabbit Hunter for the paytable in use currently.  I should point out that there are a couple of minor exceptions, but we’re talking about 0.01% or 0.02% of payback as a result. 

Play and Buy the Card when:

-          Player has a Straight Flush that is a 4-Card Royal

-          Player has a Flush that is a 4-Card Straight Flush or 4-Card Inside Straight Flush

-          Player has a Straight that is a 4-Card Straight Flush or 4-Card Inside Straight Flush

-          Player has Three of a Kind

-          Player has Two Pair

-          Player has a High Pair that is a 4-Card Straight Flush, 4-Card Inside Straight Flush or Flush

-          Player has a Pair of 10,J, Q that is a 4-Card Straight or 4-Card Inside Straight

-          Player has a Pair of K that is a 4-Card Straight

-          Player has a Low Pair

-          Player has nothing, but a 4-Card Straight Flush, 4-Card Inside Straight Flush, 4-Card Flush, 4-Card Straight or 4-Card Inside Straight

Fold when:

-          Player has A-8 or less and is not a Play/Buy hand

Play and not Buy when:

-          Any other hand

            With this strategy you will Fold 23% of the time and Buy the Card about 47% of the time.  When you buy and miss, it will hurt.  When you buy and get that Rabbit, it will pay off big time!

           

            Shuffle Master has 8 additional casinos lined up for Rabbit Hunter, including the Las Vegas trial at the Luxor.  Stay tuned for more information on it.  As Elmer Fudd would say, “Here’s to the year of the wabbit. Hehehehehe.”

Let it Ride on Speed - the scoop on Mississippi Stud

            When it comes to developing table games, there is no magic formula and there are no guarantees to success.  Three Card Poker is currently the pinnacle of proprietary table games and thus many inventors try very hard to copy some aspect of it.  Games like Three Card Poker have a “Je ne sais quoi” quality to them, which is French for something like “I haven’t a clue”.  You can’t just take the key components of a game like payback, hit frequency and fold rate, and mimic them to another game and assume you will succeed.

            A great example of this is the late blooming, Mississippi Stud.  This game was launched about 5 years ago.  It really didn’t have much success for 2 years.  It had a single table placement for much of this time, and yet this table was one of the hottest in the place.  But, despite this, many other casinos were not interested.  Then for reasons that no one can put a finger on, it slowly began to spread, and now has about 100 tables in the marketplace. 

            Mississippi Stud is owned by Shuffle Master and was the brain child of its former CEO, Mark Yoseloff.  When the game was given to me to analyze, I don’t think there was a lot of enthusiasm.  I think it was one of those cases where the guy at the top wanted it done, so it was going to get done.  Much of the other games we were working on were variations of Texas Hold’em or involved complicated wagering going head to head against the Dealer.  Mississippi Stud was a relatively simple game and a paytable game.  It is just you against the paytable, which always make analyzing the game rather simple.

            To start play, the Player makes a single wager and receives two (2) cards, while 3 additional community cards are dealt face down.  The Player now has the option to make another wager that is 1x or 3x his original wager.  If he declines to make this wager, he must Fold.  If the Player does not Fold, the first community card is turned over.  Again, the Player must Fold, bet 1x or 3x his original wager.  If he does not fold, the 2^nd community card is turned over.  Yet again, the Player has the same options – Fold, bet 1x or bet 3x.  It is kind of Let It Ride on speed.

            So, just to stay in until the end, you have to be prepared to wager at least 4 units.  The good news it that the paytable begins at a Pair of 6’s and if you get dealt at least a Pair of 6’s on your first 2 cards you have the opportunity to wager 10x your initial wager.  The most common paytable in use is as follows:

Hand	Pays*
Royal Flush	500
Straight Flush	100
Four of a Kind	40
Full House	10
Flush	6
Straight	4
Three of a Kind	3
Two Pair	2
Par of J’s or Better	1
Pair 6’s – 10’s	Push
*This does NOT include the return of the original wagers which are returned as well – payouts are TO 1

            Analyzing Mississippi Stud was relatively easy given that there are just 5 cards dealt.  What should be fairly obvious about the strategy is that once you get a Pair of 6’s or better, you bet all you can because you can’t lose.  However, unlike Let It Ride, you can’t just sit back and wait until you have a winner or nearly a winner.   With the paytable above, the payback is 99.64%.  To achieve this, however, may take some nerves of steel and some patience.  Expert Strategy dictates a Fold Rate of over 50%!  You have to be prepared to dump your hand when the cards are not going you way.  Sometimes, you’ll even have to walk away from multiple units wagered.

            The strategy after the first 2 cards is relatively simple:

q  Bet 3x on Any Pair

q  Bet 1x if you have One High Card (Jack – Ace), two Mid Cards (6 – 10) or a suited 5-6

q  Fold all other hands.  (You will fold 31+% of your hands at this point) 

If you’re interested in the rest of the strategy and statistics of the game, my latest booklet “Expert Strategy for Mississippi Stud” (surprising name, huh?) will give you plenty of both.  You can order it now at a special Gambatria blog price of  $4.95 (reg, $5.95).  Send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.