Psychological Warfare - How they 'rig' slot machines

            A few years ago, I wrote a column about a story I read in The Economist magazine.  It described a study done testing the impact of near misses on a slot machine on the human brain.  What the researchers found out was that near misses generated almost an identical reaction in the brain as an actual win.  So, if bar-bar-plum (a loser) can make the Player feel almost as good as bar-bar-bar (as winner), all the manufacturers have to do is figure out how make near misses show up a lot and Players will feel like their winning almost all the time.  Fortunately, the regulations and the technology do not make this much of a challenge.  Slot machines can legally be programmed to generate a disproportionate number of near misses relative to what might be considered random.   So, while they might throw in some fruit salad once in a while as an ugly loser, most of your losses will appear to be 'oh so close' to winners.

            Now, a new study was released this week that says the bells and whistles used on slot machines makes the Player feel like he is winning even when he isn't.  The days of coins dropping out of the slot are virtually gone, so the casinos added sound effects to the machine.  When you used to hit a cherry and get 2 coins back and heard klink-klink, this was simply not the same as hearing 20 or 100 coins going klink-klink-klink.  But, in the digital age, no one says the sound effects has to mimic the actual win.  So, the casinos can have a simple 2-coin win sound a lot like a 10-coin win.   To prove the theory, the researchers had slot Players play with sound and without sound.  Those with sound had a stronger impression that they were winning, even when they weren't.

            While this latter concept can be used for video poker, it holds a little less water because in most varieties of video poker there is no such thing as winning but really losing.  While many hands in video poker result in a push - which may FEEL like winning because your original wager is returned (i.e. Jacks or Better), there is generally no hand that returns only a portion of your original wager.  With the new generation of slot machines it is not uncommon to wager dozens of coins.  Frequently, a 'win' will result in getting only a fraction of your wager back.  Did you really win?  If you wager 20 coins and get back 5, is this a win or a loss.  Admittedly, I am the first to argue that once you wager the money it is lost and any money you get back is a 'victory'.  This seems much more applicable to table games where you play 30-40 hands/hour rather than a slot or video poker machine where you can play hundreds of hands per hour and repeatedly wagering 20 and returning 5 can quickly wipe out your bankroll.

            So, what is a Player to do when faced with all of this psychological warfare used by the casinos?  Ironically, you have to use your own type of science against them.  The science of math.  Yes, with the exceptions of some varieties of video poker, the math says that in the long run you will lose.  I've written many times that you need to look at casino games as a form of entertainment.  The question is do you want your night of entertainment to cost $20-$40 or to cost $100-$200?  I'm guessing that you'll get a lot more value for your money if you spend less money.  Most of the games in the casino are built to allow the Player to win about a third of the time over a 3 hour session.  This assumes that you learn to play each game correctly and try to pick the right games/paytables to play. 

            While I strongly advocate for playing video poker, if you wind up playing a jacks or better that pays 6-5 (Full House/Flush), you'll be playing a game that has a payback below 96% and your chances of winning will decrease considerably.   In similar fashion, playing a full-pay game has limited value if you don't learn the right strategy.  Casinos rely on these two factors for games like video poker.  Slots have no strategy and inherently have lower paybacks, so they need to come up with ways to essentially fool the Player into thinking he is doing better than he actually is.  Video Poker doesn't need to create artificial near misses.  A deck of cards and a dealt hand do an amazing job of creating these in its natural random fashion. 

            To combat the near misses and the bells and whistles of the casino requires doing a little bit of homework to learn which games to play and to learn the right strategy for those games.    It requires some discipline to stick to those strategies and to seek out the right games.  Math can be your rock to the casino's 'psychological warfare' scissors.

Back to Video Poker

            I've spent 3 out of the last 4 weeks discussing Soft Hands in the games of blackjack, Spanish 21 and Blackjack Switch.  I did this for two reasons.  The first is that it is nice to write about something other than video poker once in a while.  The second is that it is frequently easier to illustrate important concepts by using games with more straightforward differences.  If you read my column this past month, you probably can understand why you don't use the same strategy for Soft Hands for these different games.  While they may be all blackjack based games, the differences created by removing the 10's (Spanish 21) and by having a Dealer Bust of 22 (Blackjack Switch) pushing against Player hands change the math, which in turn changes our strategy.

            One thing that these games have in common, for the most part, is the payouts.  A win is a win and you get paid even money.  Spanish 21 has its bonus hands and its Charlie payouts (which also effects strategy), but you don't have to worry about looking for a paytable to know what to do.  You just have to know which game you are playing.  I must admit that a very, very long time ago, I sat down at a Spanish 21 table not realizing for about 30 minutes that I wasn't playing regular blackjack!  When it finally hit me, I'm sure I turned a nice shade of red, something I don't do very often.

            The bottom line is that from my little detour on blackjack we learn that rule changes can and will change our strategy.  What we have to learn directly from video poker is that paytable changes can do the same thing.  One could argue that there really are no rule variations across virtually all video poker machines.  You are dealt 5 cards.  You decide which ones you want to replace.  You draw that many cards.  Games like Multi-Strike and some of the attempts at a 7-Card Stud game do manage to cross the rule line, in my opinion.  In the gray area are the games that use Wild Cards (Jokers and/or Deuces).  Are these really rule changes or paytable changes?  It really doesn't matter once you realize that both can have the same impact to our strategy.

            If I pick up a copy of Winning Strategies for Video Poker, I will find 27 different paytables JUST for jacks or better.  Admittedly, some of these paytables are pretty tough to find these days, but these paytables were considered to be the 'full-pay' paytables in a number of jurisdictions when the book was revised 15 years ago.  It purposefully left out many of the short-pay machines that are some of the most common both then and today.  There are probably 50-60 paytables in use today just for jacks or better.  

            Of course, in an ideal world, none of you reading this column would actually play any of the inferior paytables if given an opportunity to play one of the better ones, but that is not likely the reality.  Also, in order for this to happen, each of you would have to know how to determine which are the better paytables to actually play.  I'll save that for another column.

            Today's column is about understanding how the strategy changes as a result of a paytable change.  With dozens of paytables out there, each game could potentially have its own strategy.  This doesn't mean that if you bring your strategy from one game to another that you'll be committing bankroll suicide, but  you won't be helping yourself either.  In some cases, you might add another 1-2% to the house advantage by using the wrong strategy for any particular paytable.

            So, what is a Player to do?  First, you can't try to master every paytable out there.  I'm guessing there are not a lot of Experts who play regular blackjack, Spanish 21 and Blackjack Switch on a regular basis.  It is too easy to get parts of the strategy confused and then you start making mistakes.  Very quickly, 3 games each with paybacks of 99%+ become not nearly as strong for the Player.  The same is true of video poker.  After a while you're going to forget which games a 3-Card Straight Flush with 1 High Card outranks a 4-Card Inside Straight with 2 High Cards. 

            The key is to target a single game.  It should be a full-pay machine with a strong paytable.  Then, go out and learn the strategy.  Read a book.  Buy some software.  Practice at your desk.  ONLY when you have mastered the strategy should you venture out to the casino and play using real money.  Before you jump to play a different game, repeat the entire process all over again.

            

We're Mad as Hell and We're Not Going to Take it Anymore!

            Thanks to Facebook, the average person now has the opportunity to reach out to many people very easily.  Many companies have a presence on Facebook, so if you want to ask a simple question you can do so easily and probably get a quick answer either from the company itself or another customer.  Of course, you also have the opportunity to let a company know when you are disappointed in its performance in some way – although, I can’t promise that they won’t quickly delete your post if they don’t like it. 

            Of course, a single person saying they don’t like something about a particular company probably won’t be very effective at getting the company to make changes.  Sometimes, what occurred was an aberration and a company will quickly rectify the situation in some way.  Unfortunately, many times, companies simply put policies in place that don’t really put their customers first.  They somehow get the idea in their heads that they can treat their customers any way they want and they’ll just keep coming back.

            The question is did they get this idea based on past experience or are they just using wishful thinking?  It is probably a combination of both, which has always bothered me quite a bit.  Why do people allow themselves to be treated poorly by a company that they are paying to do something?  It seems like as customers we have set our expectations so low that we’ll take anything that comes our way.  We have lost the art of a good effective boycott of a company that chooses to abuse its cash-paying customers!

            No, I don’t have a particular company in mind (at least not a Las Vegas casino).  We did just finish a rather eventful trip to Las Vegas, with both highs and lows in customer service.  In the end, our rental car company (mostly) came through after a flat tire left us stranded on I-15 near Flamingo.  A very heartfelt “THANK YOU” goes to the NV-DOT worker who came to our rescue!  As a result of the way we were treated by the rental car company, we very nearly were in a position to find a new regular company to use on our trips.  Fortunately, the manager stepped up and made amends for one of his employee’s poor behavior and judgment. 

            Still up in the air (pardon the pun) is how our airline will deal with a far worse situation.  I’ll save these details for a future column (or my blog!).  The bottom line is that the airline will either make the situation right or we’ll be looking for a different airline to use when we travel.  If you allow a company to treat you poorly and you just keep using them, then the company learns that they can treat you poorly with no consequences.

            So, what does this have to do with casinos and gambling?  Casinos are companies.  You are their customers.  If you don’t get treated the way you want to, you are well within your right to ask to be treated differently.  If what you are complaining about is a specific rude occurrence or employee, don’t hesitate to speak to a supervisor or manager.  While the casinos have tightened their belts greatly recently, most do not want to be known as a place that treats people badly.  A few years ago, I complained that my non-smoking room smelled a lot like smoke and I even found a cigarette butt near the window.  A half an hour later, my wife and I were being moved to a 1 Bedroom suite on the top floor.  All I asked for was a replacement room for the one I had booked!

            Sometimes, the problem is a casino policy.  These can be far tougher to get changed on short notice.  If the casino has decided to make significant changes to their cashback or comp policy, or slashes its paytables, you can voice your dislike, but it is not as likely that a manager can just restore your prior level of either.  They might be able to do something to make you feel a bit better if you ask, but at some point you will have to ask yourself if you want to ‘agree’ to this change by continuing to go to that casino or if you want to make your unhappiness clear by going elsewhere.  Just keep in mind that if you change nothing about your habits – that is you keep going back just as often and play just as much, you will be quietly telling the casino that the change is completely acceptable to you.  On the other hand, if enough people reduce or eliminate their trips to this casino, you may just find them changing their policy again – but this time in your favor.

            The bottom line is that every dollar you play is like a dollar spent at a retailer.  You choose where you play and how much you play.  There are literally dozens of casinos in Las Vegas, and although many are now owned by the same corporation, there is still enough competition to let a casino know that you’re not going to take it anymore and take your business elsewhere.  Don’t be afraid to speak with your dollars!

            Speaking of Facebook, if you get a chance, go on over to my FB page and ‘like’ it!

(http://www.facebook.com/pages/Gambatria/153757698005564).  You can also do this from my website at www.gambatria.com.